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The index measures direct costs

📐 Article5 min read

What you will learn Three components and how differently they behave, why distinguishing them is useful, what is left out of direct costs, why that gap matters, and how to explain it to a client.

There is one word in the definition of the index that changes everything: direct costs. It marks out the whole scope of the index.

1. Three components

On Statistics Estonia methodology, direct costs fall into three main groups. They are labour, materials and machinery.

Component What drives its movement
Labour wage levels
Construction machinery equipment and fuel prices
Materials raw materials and supply chain factors

These three do not move together, and that is precisely what makes the index a useful tool. The sub-indices show where the pressure comes from.

Quarter Main driver
2026 Q1 wage growth
2026 Q2 rising material prices

The same index, two different causes, two consecutive quarters. The example explains why the headline figure is not enough.

2. Why distinguishing them is useful

Three practical consequences. A rise in labour affects labour intensive solutions most, for instance structures built on site.

A rise in materials affects material intensive solutions most.

A project already ordered from a factory is partly protected against material movement, whereas a project built on site is not. The extent of protection follows from the contract terms.

This ties the index directly to the choice of technology. For the client it means the same general price rise does not affect every project equally, and that looking at the component is more useful than looking at the headline figure.

3. What is left out of direct costs

Four cost layers the index does not cover. They lie outside direct costs.

Cost layer Why it is left out
The contractor's overheads management, office, general organisation
Profit part of every quotation
Costs off site design, permits, connections
VAT and the plot not construction costs

The movement of these layers can differ from that of direct costs. Competitive conditions affect the profit margin independently of input costs, so the level of quotations may move faster or slower than the index.

4. Why that gap matters

One sentence sums up the whole article: the index measures what it costs to build, not what is charged for building. A quotation additionally carries a margin.

The gap between the two is the contractor's margin and overheads, and that gap is not constant. The margin moves with market conditions.

In strong demand the level of quotations can rise faster than direct costs. In weak demand it can rise more slowly or fall, even while direct costs rise.

Applying the index mechanically to a quotation assumes the margin is unchanged, which is not true. That assumption rarely holds.

5. How to explain it to a client

Three sentences are usually enough. The index shows the change in inputs, not the change in quotations.

Inputs are around three quarters of a quotation, the rest is overheads and profit. A change in the index therefore does not pass through in full.

The index is therefore a good indicator of direction and a poor predictor of amount.

These three explain why a 3 % rise in the index does not mean a 3 % dearer quotation, without anyone having to go into the methodology. The pass-through is partial and delayed.

In summary, and four practical rules

Direct costs are split between labour, construction machinery and materials, and these three do not move together: in the first quarter of 2026 the index was driven by wage growth, in the second by material prices. Four cost layers are left out, including overheads and profit, which are around a quarter of a quotation and move independently of inputs.

Four rules: always say which cost layer the index measures. Look at the components, not only the headline figure. Do not apply the index mechanically to a quotation, because the margin is not constant. Tie the movement of the components to the choice of technology, which gives the client usable information.

This article serves professional orientation at the date of checking. It is not a quotation.

Frequently asked questions

Because the index measures direct costs while a quotation also carries margin and overheads. The pass-through is partial.

Labour, materials and machinery. These three do not move together.

Because they show where the price pressure comes from. The headline figure is not enough.

Partly, where the materials are ordered from a factory. The extent follows from the contract terms.

Construction costs in Estonia