1. Why the estimated value is not a budget
Three things distinguish the estimated value from a cost estimate, and they apply at once. They concern the basis and purpose of the calculation.
The value is compared with thresholds, not with the market. A budget asks whether there is enough money. An estimated value asks which side of a line the procurement falls on. The two can point in opposite directions: for budgeting it is prudent to estimate high, but for the procedure that same choice moves the procurement into stricter rules.
The result of the comparison sets the procedure, not the funding. If the estimate exceeds a threshold, the procedure, the deadlines and the publication duty change. The budget does not.
The comparison must be made before the procedure is launched. For procedures started with a contract notice this means before the notice is submitted to the register. After that the estimate can no longer be changed in a way that affects the procedure.
From this follows the requirement that is the professional core of this article: document the basis of the estimate, not only the result. The estimated value is a reviewable procedural decision, and a decision whose reasoning was never written down cannot be defended later.
2. Thresholds in euros
All values are exclusive of VAT. The left column applies until 31 August 2026, the right from 1 September, when the amendments to the Public Procurement Act take effect.
| Threshold | Type of contract | Until 31.08.2026 | From 01.09.2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simplified | supplies and services | €30,000 | €50,000 |
| Simplified | construction works, service concessions | €60,000 | €100,000 |
| Simplified | defence, security and utilities sector supplies and services | €60,000 | €100,000 |
| Simplified | defence, security and utilities sector construction works | €300,000 | €500,000 |
| Public procurement | supplies, services, special services | €60,000 | abolished |
| Public procurement | construction works | €150,000 | abolished |
| Public procurement | social services, simplified defence and security services | €300,000 | abolished |
| International | classic construction works | €5,538,000 until 31.12.2025 | €5,404,000 from 01.01.2026 |
The construction works row is the most important in this table and carries the largest jump: the simplified threshold rises from €60,000 to €100,000, while the intermediate public procurement threshold of €150,000 disappears entirely. The result is that a procurement with an estimated value of, say, €120,000 was a full procedure in August and is a simplified procedure in September.
3. The four things a threshold determines
A threshold is not a formal line, it is what sets the timetable and the workload of a procurement. Four things depend on which side of it a procurement falls.
| What it determines | Practical meaning | Who bears it |
|---|---|---|
| Type of procedure | fixed in most cases, little room to choose | contracting authority |
| Minimum tender deadlines | floor of the timetable, 15 or 25 days for construction | both |
| Scope of the publication duty | whether the notice also goes to the EU Official Journal | contracting authority |
| Additional obligations | low tender check, subcontractor requirements | both |
The fourth row affects construction works most, because that is where additional obligations are heaviest. The third row determines how widely the procurement becomes visible, which has a direct effect on the number of tenders received.
4. When to make the estimate
There are three possible moments. Only one is a requirement, and it is not the one that produces the best result.
Before launching the procedure is the requirement. It is the latest permitted moment, not the recommended one.
During design is the most useful. The solution is then known, and both the solution and the structure of the procurement can still be influenced. If the estimate shows the project falling just above a threshold, at design stage there is still time to consider whether the subject matter of the procurement has been correctly delimited.
After tenders are received is too late. The procedure has already been chosen, and discovering that the estimate was wrong yields nothing but a conclusion.
How reliable an estimate can be at a given project stage is the subject of a separate guide on construction costs. That guide sits outside this cocoon.
5. What happens if the estimate proves wrong
Two situations look identical from outside, but their consequences differ entirely. The difference lies in the basis of the calculation.
| Situation | Procedural error | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Actual cost exceeds the estimate, but the procedure was correctly chosen | no | a budget question, not a procedural one |
| The estimate was systematically low in order to avoid stricter rules | yes | a choice of procedure, reviewable and challengeable |
The difference is not in the amount but in whether the estimate had a documented basis. In the first situation a calculation exists that was reasonable at the time and whose assumptions did not hold. In the second the calculation is either missing or was adjusted to fit the desired result.
In practice one thing separates them: whether the basis of the estimate was written down before the procedure was launched. Reasoning produced after the fact does not serve that purpose, because its date is visible.
6. Two lines moving in opposite directions in 2026
2026 is unusual for thresholds, because two lines move at the same time and in opposite directions. Both must be checked separately.
| Line | Direction | Date | Whose decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| International threshold | fell €5,538,000 → €5,404,000 | 01.01.2026 | European Commission |
| Domestic simplified threshold | rises €60,000 → €100,000 | 01.09.2026 | Riigikogu, 16.06.2026 |
The practical consequence is that the simplified regime widens from below and narrows from above. For medium sized construction procurements this means the band in which simplified rules apply is different at the end of 2026 than it was at the start.
Both lines must be checked separately, because they move for different reasons and at different times. The international threshold changes on a two year cycle and derives from European law; the domestic threshold is an Estonian decision. Current values must be taken from the threshold table published by the Ministry of Finance, since the two year cycle means a value taken from an earlier project may be out of date.
In summary
The estimated value is a procedural decision, not a budget line. Its comparison with thresholds sets the type of procedure, the deadlines, the publication duty and the additional obligations, and that comparison must be made before the procedure is launched. For construction works the simplified threshold rises from €60,000 to €100,000 on 1 September 2026 and the intermediate €150,000 threshold disappears, while the international threshold fell in January from €5,538,000 to €5,404,000.
The whole article can be reduced to one requirement: document the basis of the estimate, not only its result. That is what separates a budget error from a procedural one when the file is later reviewed.
This article serves professional orientation at the date of checking. It does not replace the Public Procurement Act or information published by the Ministry of Finance.