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Return and investment in construction: the keys to the analysis

📐 Topic5 min read

A construction project is not only a technical or architectural act. For investors, developers, landlords and many clients, it is above all an economic decision that must generate value. Analysing the return on a project means mastering a set of financial indicators, knowing how to build an appraisal, and identifying the variables that tip an operation from black to red.

What you will learn

  • The fundamental return indicators and how they are calculated
  • The structure of a development appraisal and how to read it
  • The economics of property development and its typical margins
  • The economic specifics of off-plan sales for developer and buyer
  • The principal financial risks and how to anticipate them

The fundamental return indicators

Gross yield

ℹ The formula: gross yield = (annual gross income / total investment cost) × 100. For example, a building whose construction and acquisition cost 2,000,000 € and which generates 100,000 € of annual rent shows a gross yield of 5 %.

Net yield

The net yield is the gross yield less all charges: property tax, insurance, management fees, irrecoverable charges, provisions for works, void periods. In France those charges typically represent 15 to 25 % of gross rent.

The internal rate of return

This takes account of every financial flow over time, the initial investment, the annual income, the final sale, and calculates the discount rate at which the net present value is zero. It is the reference indicator for comparing projects with different time horizons.

Net present value

Net present value measures the absolute value a project creates against a required rate of return. A positive value means the project creates value beyond the cost of capital. A negative one means it destroys value on the assumptions adopted.

The development appraisal: the reference tool

The appraisal brings together all the income and expenditure of an operation and measures its economic viability before any commitment.

INCOME Anticipated sales turnover, or the market value of the completed project
− Total cost Land plus land charges, works, fees, finance costs, marketing costs
= Gross margin The difference between income and cost
Margin over turnover Below 8 %, the operation is generally regarded as unviable
Return on equity The return on the capital invested, which must remunerate the risk taken

Typical development margins

2015–2019, a favourable period 10 to 15 % of turnover excluding VAT on standard operations
2020–2023, inflation and rising rates 7 to 12 %, with many operations abandoned below the viability threshold
Minimum viability threshold 8 % of turnover, below which most funders refuse to commit
Institutional forward sales Lower margins, 5 to 8 %, but lower commercial risk through the institutional buyer's firm commitment

Off-plan sales: the economics

For the developer

Off-plan sale is the principal lever for securing bank finance. Buyers' staged payments progressively fund the construction, reducing the need for development credit.

The statutory payment schedule for off-plan sales 35 % on completion of the foundations · 70 % when the building is weathertight · 95 % on completion of the works · 100 % on handing over the keys, subject to there being no defects.

For the buyer

An off-plan buyer benefits from the completion guarantee protecting their payments if the developer fails, and from the statutory warranties on completion and on two- and ten-year liability. In exchange they take a market risk between signature and delivery, 18 to 36 months.

The financial risks of a construction project

Cost overrun The most frequent risk: a poor initial estimate, changes of brief, uncontrolled variations, material inflation. Recommended provision: 5 to 10 % of the works cost.
Programme extension Every additional month generates finance costs and, on off-plan sales, late delivery penalties.
A slow market An insufficient level of pre-sales can block bank finance.
Interest rate risk A rise in rates can significantly increase finance costs and erode the final margin.
Damage and litigation Construction defects, disputes with contractors, neighbours' challenges: provisions must be built into the appraisal.

To go further: How to calculate the return on a project · Financing construction projects

Back to the main guide: Construction economics

Cost estimates, pricing schedules, bills of quantities, development appraisals, summary notes. Produce in minutes the deliverables you prepare manually today. → quostra.com · First project free

The indicators and ratios presented are indicative. The return on a project depends on many local and cyclical parameters. Consult a construction economist or a specialist financial adviser for an analysis adapted to your situation.

The nature of the figures quoted

The percentages and amounts quoted on this page are orders of magnitude for framing, not measurements. They illustrate mechanisms and proportions, and they substitute neither for a tender exercise nor for an estimate prepared on drawings.

Sources: the BT construction cost indices published monthly by INSEE on its 2010 base, used to update the figures · construction cost statistics from SDES, the statistical service of the ministry responsible for construction · regulatory texts published in the Journal officiel and consolidated on Légifrance for the requirements cited.

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